Gambling

/rant

TLDR; most people will gamble their life savings away. Some will lose some and put the rest into the index. The opportunity for value investing will grow because it’s hard to be long term oriented.

Over 2025, I’ve noticed a significant rise in gambling and sports betting advertising. On Netflix, Prime, etc., every ad is a gambling one. Polymarket and other prediction markets on the rise. On Instagram Reels, I get the occasional video where a 18 year old male will bet before doing some stunt. On every F1 team, it’s probably one of the logos. And so on… this isn’t new, but I think the increase will have lasting impacts. These impacts won’t be short term. Some will get addicted in the short term, some will lose money and stop, but many will miss out on compounding doing it’s job.

If I take the timeframe from 2026 to 2050, when everyone is getting information, gambling more, and operating on shorter cycles, the right move is to do the opposite. Be like Buffet. The market cycles will be even more dramatic and great companies will go on sale at great prices. Liberation Day (April 2025) was a great day - I was buying. Great companies took a 30% hair cut.

This also only works on a long term scale. Read Black Edge and ask yourself, do I have inside information to compete? No - then you will probably lose or need to pick another league.

Coffeezilla did a better job explaining it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ii1ROzeSwU